It seems that the Russian authorities are having a hard time accepting that Russia is playing second fiddle to China when it comes to trade in Central Asia.

Eurasianet says the reluctance of Russian officials to acknowledge trade reality was on display at trade fair “INNOPROM Central Asia” that took place in Uzbekistan’s capital, Tashkent from April 22 to April 24.

TASS news agency reports that in a statement delivered at the exhibition, Igor Kamynin, Russia’s deputy trade representative in Uzbekistan, claimed, at least in the case of Uzbekistan, that Russia and China were “equal partners with an equal share in trade turnover” in the eyes of Uzbek leaders.  

To put Russia and China on the same trade level, Kamynin cited aspirational trade targets for 2030, in which Uzbekistan hopes to increase annual trade turnover with both Russia and China to 20 billion US dollars each.

Russian official noted that despite sanctions pressure, a two-way trade between Russia and Uzbekistan valued at almost 10 billion US dollars last year and has increased by 21 percent over the first two months of this year.   

Official Uzbek trade figures for 2023 reportedly take a pin to Kamynin’s bubble world, showing a wide trade-turnover gap between Russia and China at present. Uzbek-Russian bilateral trade last year valued at 9.8 billion US dollars, almost 30 percent lower than the Uzbek-Chinese total of 13.7 billion US dollars.

China is holding its lead so far this year, according to Uzbek official sources.  Bilateral trade turnover with China during the first quarter of 2024 amounted to 3.01 billion US dollars, while Russia trailed at 2.5 billion US dollars.  If the existing pattern holds for the rest of the year, the value of Uzbek bilateral trade with Russia will remain flat while China’s total will experience a decline.

Eurasianet notes that Uzbekistan is not an anomaly in the Russian-Chinese regional trade rivalry.  Official statistics for 2023 show China surpassed Russia in trade turnover with all five Central Asian nations.