DUSHANBE, September 24, 2009, Asia-Plus  -- The ongoing global downturn continues to affect Tajikistan''s economy, largely because substantial plunge in remittances flow, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in a major new report.

"Even though real GDP registered 2.8% in the first half of the year, compared to the same period in 2008, the authorities will have to make difficult policy decisions to tackle the lower remittance inflow, relatively high inflation albeit downward trend, and potential social unrest due to the return of migrant workers," says Makoto Ojiro, ADB''s Country Director for Tajikistan.

The Asian Development Outlook 2009 Update (ADO Update) says that industrial output fell by about 13% in the first half of 2009 with the drop mainly attributable to demand for the country''s major export – aluminum.  Agriculture has been an engine for growth this year due to good weather conditions.

ADO Update projects that inflation in Tajikistan is expected to reach 12.5% in 2009 and 9.5% in 2010.

The report also notes that exports depend heavily on sales of aluminum, cotton, and power. Problems in power supply are hampering aluminum, which along with lower commodity prices is depressing export revenue, which will fall in 2009.  However, import demand is expected to be contained and the trade deficit to narrow.