DUSHANBE, September 27, 2011, Asia-Plus -- Central Asia’s countries are underestimating the situation that may emerge in Afghanistan by 2014 in connection with withdrawal of the U.S. troops from there, Kazakh political scientist Rasul Zhumaly said in an interview with Tengrimnews.

According to him, “if to look at the situation in Afghanistan in whole, one may conclude that the hostile force [the Taliban], which Kazakhstan has artificially put against itself being tied to the chariot of the United States and NATO, now will probably be aimed against Central Asia, especially against the weakest countries of the region – Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.”

“This is a huge threat to the regional security,” said Zhumaly, “We now must be prepared, control this situation.  The most important thing is not to make new mistakes as it was in spring, when we were going to send our experts to Afghanistan.”

Rasul Zhumaly considers that the Taliban will come to power in Afghanistan.  “They will represent all organizations united for resistance to NATO,” said the Kazakh political scientist.  “However, there ought not to think negatively of them [the Taliban], there are also positive moments.  For example, when the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in 1996, the civil war stopped there until 2001.  The number of crimes decreased and the country stopped to be source of heroin.”

We will recall that Russia’s Ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin said in an interview with Le Figaro recently that after withdrawal of antiterrorist coalition forces from Afghanistan international terrorists will spread their actions to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

“NATO set itself the task and it must implement it,” said Rogozin, “We do not want NATO to leave us face to face with jackals of war.  After the NATO withdrawal they will spread to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and this will become our problem.”

Earlier, Suhrob Sharipov, the director of the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Tajikistan, said that Tajikistan must be ready for withdrawal of the coalition forces from Afghanistan.

In a report released at a news conference in Dushanbe, the Tajik think tank head noted on July 14 that NATO’s plan to withdraw forces from Afghanistan until 2014 may dramatically change the situation in the region.  “Therefore, the countries of the region should have plans of actions for the period until and after 2014,” said Sharipov, “We must combine our efforts in order to efficiently address the threats.”

Sharipov considers that the United States and countries of the European Union (EU) should provide all-round assistance to Central Asia’s countries states to provide regional security after withdrawal of the coalition forces from Afghanistan.  “They must not do as the Soviet Union did; Soviet troops entered Afghanistan, deteriorated the situation and left the country,” the expert said, noting that Russia that uses the Okno space surveillance facility in Tajikistan should also provide assistance.