Discussions on the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan have reached the finish line. In less than a month, a referendum will be held in the country, the results of which will determine the strategy for the development of the nuclear industry in the country for the coming decades. The authorities talk about the upcoming vote as part of a “dialogue with the people”. Only so far everything is to no avail, because Kazakhstanis are offered to speak for or against the station, but they are not informed about who will build it. Details in “Fergana” material.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has scheduled a referendum on the NPP for October 6. Over 12 million Kazakhstanis will be able to participate in it. If more than half of them come to the polling stations, the vote will be recognized as successful. Citizens will have to answer only one question: “Do you agree with the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan?”

Preliminary expenses for the referendum will amount to 15.5 billion tenge ($32 million). These funds will be taken from the republican budget.

According to a poll conducted by the KazISS Research Institute (Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President) at the end of August, over 53% of residents of the republic support the idea of building a nuclear power plant. 32.5% oppose it, fearing possible accidents and consequences for the environment.

At the same time, almost one in ten respondents (14.4%) has not yet decided on their choice.

The topic of nuclear power plant construction is not new

The construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan has been discussed for decades. During the Soviet Union, there was one operating nuclear power plant in the republic, which was located in Aktau. It operated the BN-350 reactor, which produced not only electricity and heat, but also provided the population with drinking water due to desalination of the Caspian Sea (there are practically no fresh sources in the Mangystau region, which is why local residents still suffer, and roads are even periodically blocked in Aktau). In the 90s, this reactor began to be decommissioned, there is no nuclear fuel in it anymore.

Since then, the topic of the construction of a new nuclear power plant in the republic has been raised at least three times, but each time it was stopped at the project level. Everything changed in 2019 after Moscow's next insistent proposal to build a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan. Even the place of its possible appearance was indicated - Ulken village in the Almaty region, near Lake Balkhash.

And if then, in 2019, President Tokayev promised not to make any decisions on the station without taking into account the opinion of the population, then in November 2021 his rhetoric changed dramatically.

“We are already feeling the first signs of a shortage of electricity in Kazakhstan. Of course, there is no total shortage. The balance is about zero. But the first signs are marked. Therefore, looking to the future, we will have to make inherently unpopular decisions about the construction of a nuclear power plant. But, as they say, the role of a leader is to make unpopular decisions,” - the president said at a meeting with financiers in Almaty.

It seemed that the fundamental decision on the NPP had already been made. During the year, Tokayev regularly repeated the idea of the end of the coal era and the expected shortage of electricity, which can be overcome by nuclear generation.

After a large-scale blackout in Central Asia at the end of January 2022, the President of Kazakhstan equated the appearance of nuclear power plants with the preservation of the national economy.

“We need to say it bluntly: without clean nuclear energy, we will lose the entire economy, not to mention investments, and we will lose regional leadership. We desperately need electricity, and nuclear, clean electricity,” - he said at an expanded government meeting on February 8, 2022.

So who's going to build it?

However, after the outbreak of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the topic of nuclear power plant construction subsided. The Kazakh authorities, who accelerated the project, began to stall for time and do everything to delay its start.

After some doubts, the idea of a referendum returned. They also recalled the explanatory work with the population - nuclear weapons were actively tested on the territory of Kazakhstan in Soviet times, over a million local residents have so-called “landfill certificates” and do not really believe in a peaceful atom. To dispel doubts in all regions, the Ministry of Energy organized public hearings on nuclear power plants.

The publication “Vlast.kz" wrote that, as a rule, opponents of the construction of the station were not invited to these meetings.

In general, these events were not of wide interest to the public. The exception was the hearings in Almaty, where opponents and supporters of the construction of the station nevertheless met and almost started a fight.

The benefits of such meetings also tended to zero, since people came there already “charged” and remained of their opinion at the end of them. The situation was aggravated by the reluctance of the authorities to name the contractor who will build the facility.

Back in 2022, a “shortlist” of applicants was formed, which included four companies: Chinese CNNC, Korean KHNP, Russian “Rosatom” and French EDF. It hasn't changed since then. Moreover, nothing is yet known about the criteria by which the contractor will be selected.

Meanwhile, only two of the above companies have Generation 3+ power units in their portfolio - Russia's “Rosatom” and France's EDF. The latter offers Kazakhstan EPR-1200 reactors (European Pressurized Reactor, generation 3+ water-water nuclear reactor). However, this version has not been used anywhere yet, unlike the more powerful EPR-1600.

“Rosatom” can build turnkey WWPR-1200 and WWPR-1000 reactors in Kazakhstan. They are actively being built both in Russia and abroad.

Initially, this application was considered one of the most promising, but two years after the beginning of the armed conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, doubts arose that the Russian project could be implemented.

“The main vulnerable part of the Russian reactor is automated control systems, safety and so on. They are based on international components… Sanctions have already been imposed on companies that supply these components,” - said Mukhtar Dzhakishev, the former head of “Kazatomprom”, in an interview with the “Giperboei” YouTube channel.

Another problem, he said, is the US bill on sanctions against “Rosatom”, which has not yet been signed by President Joe Biden, but “it's a matter of time”. The document provides for sanctions against individuals and companies that cooperate with “Rosatom” or support its activities, especially in the context of the construction of new nuclear power plants or the provision of related services.

“This interpretation suggests that anyone who lobbies, even from officials, for the Russian station, may be subject to these sanctions,” - explained Dzhakishev.

It turns out that either “Rosatom”-'s proposal is so profitable that they are ready to discuss it even under the threat of sanctions, or it should be considered not in the economic, but in the political plane. And if we think in this way, could the upcoming referendum be just a “plausible reason to jump off a toxic project,” as journalist Vadim Boreyko put it?

From a political point of view, the South Korean proposal may now be the most convenient for Kazakhstan. Local nuclear scientists propose to build a third-generation APR-1400 water reactor in the republic, developed by the Korean Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). If the application is approved, a consortium of several companies will be involved in the construction and maintenance of the plant, and the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute will train the necessary specialists.

The most economically advantageous offer from China is the third-generation HPR-1000 reactors (Hualong One). Firstly, it is the cheapest - at the end of August, it was reported that the cost of building one power unit would be 20 billion yuan ($2.8 billion). Secondly, the construction period proposed by China is the fastest - only five years.

“You decided it yourself”.

Kazakhstanis decided not to trust the issue of choosing a contractor, offering to speak for or against the appearance of a certain conditional nuclear power plant in the country, which already looks strange. If the authorities have chosen such a specific topic for the referendum, on which specialists should make a decision, it would be possible to leave the choice of a technology supplier to the citizens.

In the meantime, the upcoming vote looks like an attempt to delegate the “unpopular decision on the NPP” to the people. Although this is not an acute social topic, such as, for example, an increase in the price of autogas, it is still quite sensitive for Kazakhstanis.

It turns out to be a one-way game - if citizens agree to the construction of the station, they will be told who will build it. If they refuse, they will close the topic for the next two years. But in case of any negative development of the situation (aggravated energy shortage or problems with the contractor), the authorities will have a ready answer: “That's what you decided”.