Asia and the Pacific’s economic growth will remain steady this year and next, but expected US policy changes under the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump are likely to affect the region’s longer-term outlook, says a new report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on December 11.

Asian Development Outlook: December 2024 (ADO December 2024) notes that the growth projection for the Caucasus and Central Asia is revised upward to 4.9% from 4.7% for 2024 and to 5.3% from 5.2% for 2025. The adjustment reflects robust growth in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to date, higher than expected in ADO September 2024.

With strong remittances and gold exports, Tajikistan’s economy reportedly grew 8.4%.  With a surge of fixed investment, Uzbekistan’s grew 6.6% in the first 9 months of 2024.  

For Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, the growth outlook remains unchanged. In Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, GDP growth was 4.0% in January-September 2024.   

 The Caucasus and Central Asia subregional inflation projection for 2024 has reportedly been adjusted downward to 6.8%, from 6.9% in ADO September 2024, and the 2025 forecast held at 6.2%.

According to the report, low global commodity prices benefited Tajikistan, where inflation for the first 3 quarters was 3.5%, well below the central bank’s target.  

 The growth outlook for Tajikistan has been raised from 6.5% to 7.3% for 2024, and to 7.0% from 6.5% for 2025, supported by the country’s strong growth performance, a surge in net current transfers, and an expansion of new production capacity, particularly in agribusiness and manufacturing industries.

Normalization of the global food market and inflation targeting measures will contain inflation at 4.5% this year but the outlook remains unchanged at 6.5% next year due to the anticipated rise in non-fuel commodity prices, which Tajikistan mostly imports, and the delayed effect of wage and electricity tariff increases.

Established in 1966, the Asian Development Bank is owned by 69 members—49 from the region.