Central Asia’s harvest of winter wheat should be decent, but a forecast calling for dry and warm conditions throughout the summer is raising concerns about the region’s fall harvest, according to the most recently published GEOLOGAM crop monitor.

GEOLOGAM, or the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring, is an initiative of the G20 grouping of states. The initiative is dedicated to producing “open, timely, and science-driven information on crop conditions in support of market transparency and early warning of production shortfalls.”

The monthly report for June describes “favorable conditions” for the winter wheat harvest. Uzbekistan was able to overcome below-average rainfall during the winter months by relying on irrigation to “likely improved biomass levels,” the update states. It adds that winter wheat was projected to account for only 5 percent of the overall wheat harvest for Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s biggest grain producer.

The summer growing season is expected to experience a shortage of natural rainfall. The GEOLOGAM monitor notes that precipitation in the region during the past nine months was significantly below average, with April and May of this year being exceptionally dry.

“Major snow losses resulted from the extreme low precipitation and highly above-average temperatures,” the monitor states, adding that snowpack has already been below average for the past five years. “These low amounts imply reduced water availability in downstream areas for the main agricultural season and surface water resources for second-season crops.”

“Groundwater extraction will likely increase in response to these conditions,” GEOLOGAM experts predict.

Afghanistan’s agricultural sector is likely to experience the most climate-related stress of any Central Asian state in the coming months. Expected high temperatures will “increase the risks of heat and moisture stress in rain-fed crops in central and lowland areas of Afghanistan during critical growth stages,” the monitor states.