Since the beginning of 2026, cotton prices have been on the rise again. In early January, cotton futures surged to 64.8 cents per pound, the highest level since late December, after several days of decline. However, in year-on-year terms, the price is still about 5.4% lower, and the demand for cotton remains weak.

According to Trading Economics, the price increase was driven by the return of investors to the market after the New Year holidays, leading to the closure of "short positions" — meaning the repurchase of contracts on which investors had profited during the price decline. This pushed the prices up. Additional support came from oil, which rose slightly, making polyester — one of cotton’s main substitutes — more expensive, thus making natural fiber more attractive again.

As of January 6, 2026, the price of cotton held steady at around 64.82 cents per pound, which is approximately $1.43 per kilogram. However, compared to January of last year, the price is still 5.4% lower.

Risks remain

Despite the price recovery, risks for the market persist. Trading Economics notes that market participants remain concerned about weak demand, surplus stocks, and the potential impact of tariffs on U.S. cotton. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's report also heightened concerns, as net cotton export sales for the week ending December 25, 2025, totaled only 134,000 bales, which is perceived as a sign of weak demand.

Impact on Tajikistan

For Tajikistan, the dynamics of cotton prices are especially important given the expected increase in production. According to the Forecast of Key Macroeconomic Indicators of Tajikistan for 2025–2027, the cotton harvest in 2025 is estimated at 390,000 tons, with the production of cotton fiber is estimated at 139,000 tons.

Additionally, Tajikistan is increasing its cotton fiber exports. Since the beginning of 2025, Iran has purchased more than 30,000 tons of Tajik cotton fiber for $45.7 million.