DUSHANBE, July 17, 2012, Asia-Plus  -- Tajik MFA has denied a statement by Russian Ground Forces commander, Colonel-General Vladimir Chirkin, that the Tajik authorities have allegedly approved Russian terms for an agreement on a lease extension for a Russian military base in Tajikistan after 2014 as unfounded.

The Tajik MFA representative told Asia-Plus Tuesday afternoon that Tajikistan’s position on this issue was declared by foreign minister on July 16 and it has remained unchanged.

Russian media outlets on July 17 quoted Russia''s ground forces commander Vladimir Chirkin as saying that the Tajik authorities have approved Russian terms for an agreement on a lease extension for a Russian military base in Tajikistan after 2014.  “The Tajik side considers the draft agreement between Russia and Tajikistan, strengthening the 201st military base''s presence there for another 49 years, as acceptable.  The republic''s leadership intends to bring about a joint agreement quickly,” the Russian general was quoted as saying.

We will recall that Tajikistan and Russia were supposed to settle the terms of the presence of the Russian military base in Tajikistan in the first quarter of this year.  The sides, however, failed to conclude the negotiations in time.

During a meeting last September, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and Russia’s then President Dmitry Medvedev publicly agreed to extend the base deal for 49 years, and promised to work out the details in early 2012.

The July 6 item of EurasiaNet entitled “Russia Makes Military Base Talks Public, and Personal” notes that analysts noted at the time that Emomali Rahmon looked miserable while making the announcement standing beside Medvedev.  And talk of a $300 million demand for rent, while denied by the Tajik side, poisoned coverage of the meetings.

Russian officials are reportedly concerned Tajikistan is too close to the NATO alliance.  EurasiaNet reports Russian suspicions were boosted on July 6 when a delegation of US congressmen visited Tajikistan and said the country would make a fine alternative to neighboring Kyrgyzstan for a future American base. 

“For their part, Tajik officials are mostly quiet -- perhaps uncomfortable with such public confrontations -- while pursuing what in Central Asia is often described as a “multi-vector” foreign policy, seeking assistance and investment from Russia, but also from the West and China.  Indeed, Beijing just promised Rahmon $1 billion in investment last month.”

The “Russia Makes Military Base Talks Public, and Personal” item notes that no one can blame the Tajiks for wanting to balance these big players.  It quoted Russian analyst Aleksey Malashenko as saying in a briefing for the Carnegie Moscow Center recently that Russia has not been a reliable friend.  “But when push comes to shove, with 45 percent of Tajikistan’s economy dependent on remittances from Tajik migrant laborers in Russia, and Rahmon eyeing presidential elections next year, Dushanbe does not have a lot of leverage.”