Dr. Rustam Azizi, an expert in violent extremism, believes that  Tajikistan and other Central Asia’s nations should worry about the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K), an affiliate of the Islamic State (IS) terrorist groupе active in South Asia and Central Asia.  

“Of course they won't attack openly and wage a large-scale war like in Syria and Iraq; firstly they do not have sufficient resources for this, and secondly,  the Central Asian countries are still more stable than Syria and Iraq,” said the expert.  “Besides, the border is controlled quite effectively.”  

Accordingly, they can use the tactics of so-called sleeper cells, which will be formed with use of Internet, personal contacts, especially in migration, in communities and diasporas, Azizi noted.  

“Such cells cannot be kept for long, because there is a danger that they will be discovered, and this is risky and costly,” said the expert.  “Therefore, such cells such cells are created very quickly and used quickly.”   

According to him, they should be feared precisely in the context of the threat of terrorist attacks -- experience around the world shows that it is impossible to protect yourself from them 100%.  

Dr. Rustam Azizi.

“Everyone, even the most advanced intelligence agencies, makes mistakes.  “And since it is impossible to control every meter and every person, the threat of terrorist attacks is always relevant,” said Azizi.  “So we can say that this is an objective risk, although not too high, but acceptable.” 

 

Could they have a claim with Tajikistan?

Yes, since its formation, Tajik militants of the IS terrorist group have made threats against Tajikistan.  Now there is an influx of new members from the Central Asian countries, mostly from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

“Accordingly, it is the most suitable consumable for “use” in these countries,” the expert notes, adding that it should also be noted that the frequent mention of citizens of Tajikistan in the context of threats emanating from the IS-K group plays into the Taliban hands and gives them a trump card in their statements and criticism of Tajikistan’s position. 

 

What are the IS-K their ideology and goals?

The expert notes that they are a continuation of local extremist groups; according to him, “various Islamist ethnic groups – Uighurs, Tajiks, Uzbeks as well as local Pashtuns – have amassed both in northern and eastern parts of Afghanistan. 

“Their common main goal is to establish a regime of Sharia rule,” said the expert.  “They strive to build some kind of global Islamist International under their leadership, and they do not want to be part of any other systems and be content with establishing a caliphate in a separate region.”  

 

It is to be noted that more than two years after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, there is growing consensus that the country is again devolving into a hotbed of terrorism activity that is already beginning to affect the region.

A report released by the United Nations in June last year, in particular, warns that “a range of terrorist groups have greater freedom of maneuver under the Taliban de facto authorities.” 

The various groups are reportedly making good use of this.  The threat of terrorism is rising in both Afghanistan and the region, according to the report.  

Some estimates put the number of terrorist groups in Afghanistan at about 20, and even some of Afghanistan’s neighbors have raised concerns.

Tajikistan’s authorities have expressed concern about concentration of militants of the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) terrorist group, a regional branch of the Salafi terror group  Islamic State (IS) in northern provinces of Afghanistan bordering Tajikistan.  

Meanwhile, the Taliban, who are in control of the Afghan state, claim that they have brought the Islamic State’s insurgency in the country under control and have almost defeated it.  External observers, by contrast, often see the Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K) as being on the ascendance.    

Recall, U.S. Central Command’s General Kenneth Frank McKenzie told U.S. lawmakers in March 2022 that without sustained pressure from the U.S. and U.S.-backed Afghan forces, the IS affiliate is solidifying its foothold in Afghanistan.  McKenzie said that IS-K will be able to conduct attacks out of Afghanistan in 12 to 18 months.

IS-K group, or Daesh–Khorasan, is reportedly active in South Asia and Central Asia. The group has been active in Afghanistan and its area of operations includes Pakistan, Tajikistan and India where they claimed attacks, as well as Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bangladesh and China where individuals have pledged allegiance to it.  The ISIS-K and Taliban consider each other enemies.

The group was created in January 2015 by disaffected Taliban in eastern Afghanistan, although its membership includes individuals from various countries notably Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Myanmar.  Its initial leaders, Hafiz Saeed Khan and Abdul Rauf Aliza, were killed by US forces in July 2016 and February 2015, respectively.  Subsequent leaders have also been killed; its leader Abdullah Orokzai was captured in April 2020 by Afghanistan's intelligence service.

IS-K has conducted numerous high-profile attacks against civilians mostly in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  In July 2018, IS-K bombings killed 149 in Mastung, Pakistan.  In May 2021, an IS-K bombing killed 90 in Kabul.  In August 2021, IS-K killed 13 American military personnel and at least 169 Afghans during the U.S. evacuation of Kabul, which marked the highest number of U.S. military deaths in an attack in Afghanistan since 2011. The Daesh terrorist group claimed responsibility for two explosions that killed nearly 100 people and wounded scores of others at a memorial for Iran's top anti-terror commander Lieutenant-General Qassem Soleimani in the southeastern Iranian city of Kerman on January 3 this year.  IS-K also claimed responsibility for the March 22 attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue, in which at least 144 people were killed.