DUSHANBE, January 27, 2016, Asia-Plus --  Russia’s Federal Migration Service (FMS) reports that the number of Tajik nationals staying in the Russian Federation decreased by nearly 14 percent in the course of last year.

According to statement released by FMS, the number of Tajik nationals staying in Russia decreased from 999,100 in January 2015 to 862,300 in July 2015.

The number of Tajik male nationals reportedly decreased in the course of last year by 14.3 percent -- from 817,000 in January 2015 to 700,000 in January 2016.

The number of Tajik female citizens decreased over the report period by 11.5 percent – from 182,000 in January 2015 to 161,000 in January 2016.

Meanwhile, the Migration Service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of the Population of Tajikistan reports that 552,596 labor migrants, including 64,667 women, left Tajikistan during last year. They traveled primarily to Russia (541,000) and Kazakhstan (11,000).  

We will recall that an article “Tajikistan: Remittance Values Fall” by Catherine Putz that was posted on The Diplomat’s website on January 5 notes that while the value of remittances has indeed fallen, workers are not returning in droves as some feared.

Tajikistan relies heavily on remittances and is Central Asia’s poorest state, therefore concerns were high that remittances would fall and workers would return to a country that didn’t have job for them.  However, workers are not returning in droves as some feared, the article notes.

In 2012, Tajikistan pulled in $3.7 billion in remittances–comprising just over half of the country’s $7.6 billion GDP.  Since, that percentage has fallen but not by much.  The World Bank stated that in 2013, remittances comprised 49 percent of Tajikistan’s GDP.  The expectation was, and remains, that remittances will continue to fall but not as a product of better employment opportunities in Tajikistan but economic downturns in the countries to which Tajiks travel for work.

According to the article, this explains the fact that the return migration rate has not exploded–despite the fall in the value of remittances.  The World Bank’s survey,  Tajikistan Economic Update, found that the share of migrants returning, which was about 2 percent in May, rose to just over 3 percent by August and then dropped back toward 2 percent in September.