It must be acknowledged that the ineffective work of Tajik government representatives in Russia, the still unsuccessful diversification of labor migration, and the unchecked pressure on Tajik citizens in Russia highlight the failure of Tajikistan's migration policy.  This means that changes are necessary.

A few days ago, Ms. Soleha Kholmahmadzoda assumed the position of Minister of Labor, Migration, and Employment of Tajikistan.  It is unclear how familiar she is with migration issues and the challenges faced by migrants, but addressing them will be inevitable—and must be done promptly, as the situation for Tajik migrants continues to deteriorate.

Problem #1 – Tajik migrants in Russia

For many years, migration from Tajikistan to Russia has been accompanied by crises and numerous legal and social challenges. These issues intensified in 2024, particularly after the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, in which four Tajik citizens were involved. This incident led to an unprecedented surge in anti-migration policies in Russia.

Tajik migrants in Russia now face constant threats to their legal status, including denial of work permits, forced returns, and deportations. This situation is a serious concern for hundreds of thousands of families in Tajikistan, as well as the Tajik authorities. The country’s economy heavily depends on migrant remittances, which form a substantial portion of household incomes.

International financial institutions classify Tajikistan's economy as one of the most dependent on remittances globally. According to the World Bank, remittance inflows to Tajikistan surged to US$5.3 billion (49% of GDP) in 2022, nearly double the US$2.9 billion in 2021. In 2023, the amount further increased to US$5.7 billion, marking a 6.6% growth.

Any changes in migration policies could significantly impact Tajikistan’s socio-economic stability.

Problem #2 – Ineffective work of Labor Ministry’s representatives in Russia

The activities of Tajikistan’s Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment offices in Russia remain largely ineffective. These offices are supposed to be key defenders of Tajik labor migrants, yet their impact is barely visible.

During mass arrests and deportations last year, the hotline numbers of these offices, which were supposed to provide urgent assistance, often did not work.

Migrants have repeatedly complained that their attempts to reach out to these offices were futile.  An experiment conducted by Asia-Plus confirmed this issue—more than half of the listed phone numbers were unreachable.

Problem #3 – Unsuccessful diversification of labor migration

As Russia imposes stricter restrictions on migrants, new opportunities for migration to Europe have emerged.  However, these remain limited.

For instance, migration to the UK offered good working conditions and high wages, providing many Tajik citizens with a chance for a better life. In 2022, 383 Tajik citizens traveled to the UK for seasonal work, earning an average of US$90 per day—several times higher than wages in Russia.

However, this program was soon closed due to mismanagement and illegal actions by some migrants who overstayed their contracts and remained in the UK illegally.

By the end of 2023, only 1,500 Tajik citizens were able to secure temporary employment in countries such as Turkiye, Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, the UAE, and Japan through the Ministry of Labor.

Problem #4 – Providing real jobs at home

Every year, the Tajik authorities report the creation of thousands of new jobs, yet hundreds of thousands of citizens continue to leave the country in search of better employment opportunities.

Most new jobs, which are primarily in the public sector and construction, are characterized by low wages and poor working conditions. The youth, which forms the core of the workforce, prefers to seek higher-paying jobs abroad.

Additionally, many newly established enterprises shut down shortly after opening for various reasons.  As of January 17, 2025, a total of 247,000 new jobs were created in Tajikistan in 2024, but only 74,000 of them were permanent.

Experts believe that only the creation of favorable economic conditions and the attraction of investments in production sectors can reduce migration and motivate people to stay employed within the country.

How to Improve Workforce Training for Tajikistan’s Labor Market?

Tajikistan’s labor market is affected by the unstable global socio-economic situation, which demands new approaches to training qualified workers, improving their skills, and more effectively distributing the workforce across economic sectors.

With population growth projected at 2–2.1% annually until 2027, the labor market will face new challenges.  By 2027, the country’s labor force is expected to increase by 572,000 people, with 227,100 entering the workforce. However, the economically inactive population will remain high, reaching nearly 55%.

Currently, Tajikistan has 60 vocational education institutions offering training in 135 specialties, but the quality of education remains low.  Graduates often do not meet modern labor market requirements, making their skills uncompetitive.

There are also issues with educational infrastructure.  Only 50% of computers in vocational schools are connected to the internet, and equipment in technical colleges is outdated.

Furthermore, the need to increase teachers' salaries and update the education system remains a pressing issue.

Recent reforms have aimed at modernizing education and improving learning conditions, but sustainable development requires closer collaboration with employers, the introduction of new specialties, and an overall improvement in workforce training quality.