CABAr.asia notes that according to independent expert Muhammad Shamsuddinov, one of the biggest challenges for Tajikistan in fighting climate change is funding.  Due to limited resources, the Tajik government primarily seeks foreign financing to support its climate initiatives.

Impacts of climate change on Tajikistan’s development

Tajikistan's climate and weather conditions are shaped by its mountainous landscape, which covers 93% of the country’s territory. 

Water resources reportedly account for 50% of the total regional supply, mainly fed by snow reserves and glaciers, which cover 6% of Tajikistan’s land area.

90% of agricultural production relies on water resources, which also form the basis of renewable energy generation, providing up to 95% of the country’s electricity.

However, rapid population growth has outpaced economic development, leading to labor market challenges, food security issues, struggles in providing essential services and income and social security concerns

Recognizing these challenges, Tajikistan’s National Development Strategy for the period up to 2030 (NDS-2030) defines three strategic goals: food security; overcoming transport isolation; and energy independence. 

In 2018, President Emomali Rahmon introduced a fourth goal: industrialization.

However, climate change is exacerbating Tajikistan’s development issues.

Agriculture, which plays a crucial role in economic development, is highly vulnerable to climate fluctuations.  Climate-related risks can impact both the economy and the well-being of the population.

The energy sector is also affected, as water availability, weather conditions, and climate impacts make long-term planning difficult.

The transport sector also faces risks, as more frequent and severe floods could disrupt roads and railways.

Statistically, climate change is estimated to cause losses of 4.8% of Tajikistan’s GDP—equivalent to $600 million annually.

Legal and institutional framework for climate action

To combat climate change, Tajikistan has joined several international agreements, including UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – Tajikistan became a party in 1998, and Paris Agreement (2015) – a global pact signed by 194 countries, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global temperature rise to 2°C (with efforts to further restrict warming to 1.5°C).

Tajikistan has also developed several national policies: NDS-2030 identifying climate-related risks affecting Tajikistan’s comprehensive development; National Climate Adaptation Strategy (up to 2030) aiming to increase Tajikistan’s resilience to climate change and reduce the vulnerability of key economic sectors; Medium-Term Development Program (2021–2025), which includes measures to address climate change challenges.

Climate finance challenges

The expert notes that the biggest issue Tajikistan faces in its climate action efforts is financing.

According to the UNDP Climate Finance Plan (2024), developed with the support of the Asian Development Bank, Tajikistan needs US$8.41 billion by 2030 (or about US$1 billion annually) to meet its emission reduction and climate adaptation goals.

Due to limited domestic resources, the government primarily relies on foreign funding. Tajikistan actively seeks international financial support by participating in global climate discussions, agreements, and initiatives.