An article posted on CABAR.asia’s website notes that in 2023, the Central Asian landscape was a hotbed of diplomatic activity, with regional leaders convening nearly a dozen times and concluding the year amid a flurry of foreign policy interactions in the “C5+1” format.  This intense scrutiny from global players is set to continue into 2024, underscoring the necessity of transforming fleeting interests into enduring alliances.

The article entitled “Interest in Central Asia will Decline in 2024 – Four Reasons Why” says that the coming year promises a pivot in international focus, primarily driven by key political events in the United States and Russia.  Both nations, preoccupied with their own presidential elections, are reportedly anticipated to turn inwards, channeling their energies towards domestic agendas.  The author notes that this shift is partly influenced by the public’s growing appetite for internal stability and governance.

The article notes that there are four reasons why interest in Central Asia will decline next year: 1) attention to US-Russia competition globally and in Central Asia will diminish due to the elections; 2) the prospective expansion of the European Union may inadvertently curtail its engagement with Central Asia; 3) reduced trade between the European Union and China will reduce the transit of goods through Central Asia; and 4) interest in Central Asian energy resources will decline due to infrastructure constraints and regulatory considerations

The article notes that in examining recent diplomatic activities, the heightened interest in Central Asia can be attributed to several key factors:

• Geopolitical Alignments: The region’s strong connections with Russia and China are significant in the context of these nations’ global rivalry with Western powers. The nature and depth of these ties are critical in understanding the shifting geopolitical landscape.
• Security Dynamics: The ongoing situation in Afghanistan and the potential for water-related conflicts in the region are of high relevance. Central Asia’s proximity and response to these issues are pivotal in regional stability considerations.
• Energy Supply: The export of energy resources from Central Asia is a crucial element, given its rich reserves of oil and gas. This positions the region as an important player in the global energy market.
• Trade Connectivity: Central Asia’s strategic location as a transit point for goods moving between Asia and Europe enhances its significance in global trade networks.
• Regional Development: The stable development of Central Asia is a factor in itself, as it contributes to broader regional and international stability.

The author further notes that West focuses on Central Asia mostly to counter Russia.  In the broader context of the West’s strategic rivalry with China and Russia, Central Asia garners heightened interest, particularly due to its more pronounced ties with Russia.  For many Western nations, including the United States, Russia looms as a significant national security threat.  A review of the national security strategies of the US, Germany, France, and Japan reportedly reveals a common thread: except for Japan, Russia is more frequently cited as a concern than China, Iran, or North Korea.  This is notably evident in the security strategy under Joe Biden’s administration, where Russia and Iran are referenced as often as China.  Meanwhile, Japan’s strategy places even greater emphasis on Russia compared to France and Germany, highlighting the perception of Russia as a principal security challenge.

The article notes that water crisis threatens stability and resource supply in the Central Asian region.  The European Union’s approach to Central Asia is strategically crafted to address critical crisis issues, with a particular focus on the region’s water challenges.  This strategy, however, is shaped by resource limitations, which become evident in the context of infrastructure project competition with China.