In less than two weeks, the balance of power in Syria has drastically shifted.  Opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seized control of the capital, overthrowing Bashar al-Assad’s government.

Tajik political scientist Muhammad Shamsuddinov says the situation could have significant consequences for Central Asia, especially Tajikistan.

Background

Shamsuddinov notes in his article that the roots of current events in the Middle East, particularly evident in Syria, trace back to the post-war period of the mid-20th century. During that time, the global colonial system began to erode in the Middle East and the Arab world, which had previously been under a de facto colonial system known as the "mandate system."

In the wake of this era, three major movements emerged in the Arab world, vying for power in the post-colonial period. Each had external patrons (mainly the U.S. and USSR) supporting their struggles: 1) modernists, aiming to establish new Arab states based on republicanism and Arab nationalism; 2) conservatives, seeking to uphold absolutist/monarchist rule by individual dynasties; 3) and terrorist jihadist/Islamist forces advocating extremist ideologies.

The modernists/nationalists gained dominance in most Arab countries, but terrorist groups also wielded considerable influence in the region.

By the 1970s, the decolonization process concluded with the emergence of robust nationalist states such as Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Libya, alongside monarchies like those in the Persian Gulf.  Simultaneously, terrorist forces maintained active operations.

This order persisted until the early 21st century. The regional system began to erode in 2003 with the fall of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. At this point, the influence of Arab nationalists waned while jihadist/Islamist groups gained strength and intensified their activities.

The "Arab Spring" led to the collapse of Libya, and nationalist forces in Egypt and Tunisia lost their former influence. This overall process can be described as an "erosion of statehood," fueling the rise and spread of destructive movements.

Why Syria? Why now?

Syria reportedly became a battleground for intense internal and external struggles.  The author notes that in 2011, unrest in the country escalated into civil war.  The author notes that different regions came under the control of various political factions supported by external actors: the Assad government, backed by Iran and Russia; Kurdish forces, supported by the U.S. and its Western allies; and terrorist organizations, such as ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, supported by Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the U.S., and others.

This created chaos in Syria.  Despite the Geneva and Astana peace processes (initiated in 2016), agreements to cease fire were only partially effective.  Fighting persisted until the latest crisis erupted.

On November 27, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces, controlling Idlib, launched an offensive and by December 8, they had seized Damascus, forcing President Assad to flee the country.

Contributing international dynamics

This power shift was facilitated by global circumstances. Russia, Assad’s main ally, is heavily involved in the war in Ukraine, particularly after Donald Trump’s election victory, which worsened the situation and heightened the likelihood of a major conflict requiring Russia’s full resources.

Iran, another Assad ally, is also in a precarious position, weakened by the decline of its key proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.  This has undermined its influence in the region as it avoids direct confrontation with Israel, mediated by the U.S.

Implications for Central Asia and Tajikistan

The author notes that speaking about the consequences of the described events for the Central Asian region two of them can be noted:

1. Information Aggression and Recruitment -- Terrorist activities are often accompanied by aggressive propaganda in the information space, employing techniques to recruit and intimidate. Tajikistan’s population, unfortunately, remains vulnerable to such propaganda due to limited awareness of these groups’ objectives and methods. This poses a security threat to Central Asia and Tajikistan. The situation is exacerbated by migration challenges. Migrants, frustrated by experiences of collective punishment in Russia, may be more susceptible to terrorist recruitment.
2. "Taliban 2.0" Effect -- The success of another terrorist group seizing power could foster increased "sympathy" for such movements. With support from their patrons, these groups may exploit the situation, asserting their legitimacy and urging others to emulate their model.

This could embolden destructive terrorist forces operating in the region, potentially plunging it into chaos, the author noted.